Will Sonia Gandhi Concede Telangana Before Elections 2014?

The story doing the rounds is that chief minister Kiran Kumar Reddy is interested in contesting the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and that he has even identified a possible seat – Rajampet -from where he could run. Though Rajampet is in Jagan land Kadapa- segments of the Lok Sabha seat fall in Kiran’s native Chittoor and hence his preference for the seat. The story may or may not be correct, but illustrates the state of affairs in the Congress party. If the party were to be on a good wicket, the chief minister would want to run for another term, not seek refuge in Lok Sabha.

Even before Wednesday’s election results, analysts were sure about one thing: The contest in the 2014 elections in the Andhra and Rayalaseema region would be between Naidu’s resurgent Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Jagan’s YSR Congress while it would be Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) all the way in Telangana. Congress, the grand old party, that has been in power in all but fifteen years in the 55 years history of Andhra Pradesh would be reduced to an also ran status.

The Reddys around whom the Congress was built have started deserting the party for Jagan’s YSR Congress, taking along with them a large chunk of Dalits. These are the Malas, who are found predominantly in the coastal Andhra area. Many of the Malas are Christians too. This leaves only the Kapus to hold the Congress. For those who came in late, the social base of the Congress from the very beginning has been the combination of the Reddys, Kapus and the Dalits, with the last two being junior partners in the coalition. Though numerically the Reddys are small – not more than 8% of the population- their importance lies in their leadership in various fields like business and education.

With the byelections results announced, the Reddy outbound traffic from the Congress is expected to increase. “It is not that the Reddys have any problem with the Congress. But everybody likes to align with the winning horse. Although it may be a little premature to predict that Jagan can power his way to victory, it is however quite clear that the Congress is on the descent. Therefore they will move out from the party,” said a senior Reddy leader. Byelections to 17 seats to the Assembly – all vacated by Jagan loyalist MLAs who quit the Congress – are slated in the next two months. Their results will be a further indicator to the state of affairs.

Cognizant that the Congress future lies in keeping its Reddy base intact, the high command had installed Kiran Reddy as chief minister in November 2010. Young and urbane Kiran was expected to checkmate Jagan, but that has not happened. Hampered by lack of experience in realpolitik (including money play and decision making) Kiran has faced a rising tide of opposition from his ministers and MLAs. He has also been unable to get his writ run through his officers, and as a result governance has taken a backseat. Of course, the part of the problem is the doing of the high command. Dependent as it was on Y S Rajasekhara Reddy for marshaling resources and MPs for the Lok Sabha, the high command allowed the late chief minister to choose his own men for the 2009 assembly elections. More than half of the Congress MLAs owed their personal loyalty to YSR and after his death shifted their loyalties not to the Congress party but to Jagan. “Had it not been for this dependence on YSR, the Congress would have been in a better position in Andhra Pradesh. The MLAs would not have run to Jagan,” a senior Congressman says.

To counter the exodus of Reddys, the high command was able to cajole Chiranjeevi to merge his Prajarajyam party into the Congress. This is seen by analysts as a positive move which will benefit the party. Although the Kapus (who were the main base of the Prajarajyam) numerically are much higher than the Reddys, analysts are not sure whether this move would counteract the impact of the desertion of the Reddys. Moreover there are indications that many mid-level Kapu leaders – who were earlier in the Prajarajyam are these days running around like headless chickens not able to find their feet in the established hierarchy of the Congress party. Such leaders can be fodder for Jagan whose new party can accommodate virtually everybody.

The Congress high command’s thinly disguised move to hem in Jagan by unleashing the CBI on him has also not resulted in major gains till now. CBI has alleged that YSR and Jagan had allotted land to corporates in lieu of investments in Jagan’s media ventures but they have not been able to put the boss of YSR Congress behind bars. As the recent Supreme Court directive to issue notices to ministers and bureaucrats in the Jagan assets case demonstrates, there is no way in which Jagan can be nabbed leaving unscathed many Congress party leaders.

It is a Catch 22 situation for the Congress and internal wrangles are bound to intensify in the coming days. Already there is a demand for changing the chief minister with the hopefuls ranging from deputy chief minister Damodar Raja Narasimha (Dalit) to Botsa Satyanarayana (Kapu). In the meanwhile, Kiran Kumar Reddy is seen resigned to his fate: his recent pix in the newspapers like playing cricket and cycling around the Necklace Road is seen as evidence of this.

What the Congress high command would do next is anybody’s guess. If instability is on the rise it could impose President’ rule in the state. This would cease political activity in the state. However, analysts perceive that in a last ditch effort the party can go ahead and create Telangana. That would leave Naidu to battle Jagan in Andhra or Rayalaseema while the Congress would want to win Telangana by carving out the new state. It might also persuade K Chandrasekhar Rao to merge his TRS with the Congress.