Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Analysis: Boston Marathon Blasts: Lesson For India

While the tragedy of the twin blasts at the Boston Marathon sinks in, there are still some lessons that can be learnt from the way the attack has been handled this far. Here are three immediate observations following the blasts:

Perhaps the most important lesson, from an Indian point of view, is to learn from what Boston got right. Focus, when watching live video-footage of the bombings, on how emergency-service providers respond.  Local police and national guards present on the site calmly rip away barriers to ease access to the victims. Emergency service sirens can be heard within seconds  No crowds of gawpers—who can trample over critical forensic evidence—gather. Bomb-squads began searching the marathon route immediately; two unexploded bombs were found. In stark contrast, chaos prevailed at Dilsukh Nagar in Hyderabad earlier this year—as it has in every other terrorist attack in recent years.  We’ve learned nothing: when was the last time you were asked to participate in a disaster-response drill?

The take away: preparedness saves lives. The difference is that first-responders in the United States, whether police or ambulance services, rehearse well laid-down drills regularly. In India, under-staffed, under-trained and under-paid first-response services don’t. The difference shows.


It is far to early to make any assumptions about who the perpetrator might be.  Beware jumping to conclusions on the basis of reports, for example, that a Saudi national was detained running away from a bomb-site—that’s exactly what everyone, Saudi or otherwise, tends to do. The Congressional Research Service says there have been 63 attempted attacks in the United  States since 9/11 by home-grown jihadists. It is possible this was the first successful. There is no shortage, though, of other kinds of violent extremists wanting harm their fellow citizens. Early this year, the Combatting  Terrorism Centre at West Point flagged the growing threat of white supremacist and neo-Nazi terrorism. It reminds us that the most lethal attack in the United States before 9/11, the bombing of the Federal Plaza in Oklahoma, was carried out by Timothy McVeigh—a crazed white-supremacist.

The take away: a closed mind is a guaranteed route to reaching the wrong conclusions. Investigation involves slow, patient work.In hours and days to come, the US authorities will question dozens, perhaps hundreds, of suspects, but most if not all of them will be proved innocent. Leads will be checked—and most dropped.

From early reports, it seems likely that the perpetrator had some degree of expertise.  There are some intriguing similarities between the Boston attacks and the kinds of attacks carried out by the Indian Mujahideen networks in India.  For example, 11 of 12 IM strikes between February 23, 2005 and September 13, 2008, involved multiple Improvised Explosive Devices, or IEDs, in 10 cases timed for synchronous explosion with nothing more sophisticated than a mechanical quartz alarm clock.  Like in Boston, the Indian Mujahideen bombings—including more recent strikes, like those at Pune’s Germany Bakery or the Zaveri Bazaar in Mumbai—involved simple IEDs, fabricated from an ammonium nitrate base and packed with ball-bearings for lethal effect.

The take away: no country can be completely immune from terrorism, because bombs are easy to make. The same materials that kill also have commercial applications and are therefore easily available. In the United States, the bombers will likely have left a trail—for example, credit cards used in purchases or closed-circuit television in stores. In India, such track-back is almost impossible.

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