Why TRS 'No-Confidence' Motion Against Kiran Reddy Government?

Why did the TRS decide to lead the  no-confidence motion against the Kiran Kumar Reddy-led Congress Government? Is it a ploy by the Congress itself or does KCR really want to throw out the dispensation? Is KCR so much confident that he can lure at least seven Congress MLAs into the TRS fold? God knows. Yet, as the things appear, the Congress is still firmly in the saddle.

The total number of MLAs =295 (including one nominated MLA); MLAs who lost right to vote=2 (one each from Congress and TDP); effective strength of MLAs= 293; Congress=156 (including one independent MLA); TDP=85, YSRC=17, TRS=17, MIM=7, CPI=4, BJP=3, CPM=1, Lok Satta=1, Independents=2.

However, the number game changed. Eight MLAs of the Congress are sailing with YSRC bringing down the effective strenght of Congress dwindles to 148.  However, the speaker may not exercise his franchise unless mandatory, pegging the strength of the Congress at 147. Nuzvid MLA of TDP got closer to the Congress, jacking up the ruling party’s number to 148.

Two of the TDP MLAs (Parigi and Mudhole) went adrift from TDP to the TRS and the main opposition’s strength dwindled to 82.  Five TDP MLAs joined the YSRC bringing down the number to 77.  The speaker has with him the resignations of four Congress MLAs and one TDP MLA.  If he accepts them the strength of the MLAs eligible to vote comes down to 288. If the Congress can disqualify four of its MLAs, the total number comes down to 284. One disqualification petition of a TDP MLA  Balanagi Reddy is already pending with the speaker. If the speaker, at the request of the TDLP, disqualifies five other MLAs who joined hands with the YSRC, the number comes down to 278. This brings down the magic number to 140.

Considering its own predicaments, if at all, the MIM wants to abstain from the voting and lend a helping surreptitiously to the Congress, the magic number slides to 136. Aside from this, the MIM may not tread the TRS-led no-confidence path, for the first reason cited by the TRS for seeking a no-trust vote against the Government is not carving out a separate Telangana, to which t he MIM is opposed tooth and nail.

And, Lok Satha’s Jayaprakash Narayan beings up some legislative principle and may not vote in favour of a no-trust move, further bringing down the number to 135. At the end, the Congress will have 148.

This means, the ruling party will have 13 legislators more than the half-way mark. If the Government has to collapse, the TRS has to influence more than seven MLAs or the YSRC has to lure an equal number into it. To ensure the collapse of Kiran Reddy’s dispensation, the TRS may have to play the regional card or the YSRC its own tricks. Ironically, there is nobody from the ruling Congress to go towards the main opposition TDP.

Therefore, heavens are not going to fall for the Congress and it will sail through the no-confidence motion.